Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 140.140638 162.661893 188.591682 220.870124 260.274521 307.200103 367.891310
2025-11-23 108.223951 135.026975 168.845516 215.365791 278.843926 364.167776 490.597167
2025-11-30 95.959128 126.519225 167.922114 229.639676 322.055024 460.067175 691.616844
2025-12-07 84.142099 115.606253 160.592354 231.973231 347.117726 534.762725 885.337209
2025-12-14 76.059372 108.218707 156.372138 237.079507 376.279142 622.238653 1131.934035
2025-12-21 68.539681 100.353959 149.846367 236.717834 395.446195 696.742474 1383.462558
2025-12-28 65.480463 98.789513 152.738547 252.245279 445.935994 844.507103 1859.961652
2026-01-04 62.166265 96.283075 153.544598 263.977301 491.804220 997.768736 2436.034235
2026-01-11 58.875485 93.343315 153.074959 273.054585 534.337537 1158.445777 3136.523128
2026-01-18 55.317256 89.491347 150.385841 277.172051 567.030773 1307.424533 3911.600080
2026-01-25 51.677025 85.076133 146.049905 277.083144 589.985843 1439.899640 4740.266633
2026-02-01 47.740993 79.721861 139.275739 270.650446 596.035197 1527.550640 5475.655477
2026-02-08 44.146895 74.783017 132.988617 264.866812 604.075745 1630.508172 6416.172963
2026-02-15 40.902724 70.204277 126.914116 258.641539 609.757068 1730.367880 7474.924776
2026-02-22 40.297397 70.589629 130.933812 276.718944 688.168461 2121.552822 10772.142100
2026-03-01 38.375905 68.207366 128.876520 279.686798 723.679198 2376.732582 13743.224488
2026-03-08 36.907064 66.582816 128.239093 286.132985 772.252821 2717.546294 18238.462123
2026-03-15 35.041541 63.981331 125.157320 285.677585 798.556557 2980.450038 22856.350484
2026-03-22 34.726030 64.546428 129.232603 305.309793 900.841557 3691.060968 35436.070029
2026-03-29 34.060692 64.305652 131.421170 320.189495 992.530465 4441.310485 53598.740883
2026-04-05 33.207794 63.579669 132.373443 331.728677 1076.706235 5244.373662 80262.642985
2026-04-12 32.049968 62.083377 131.289172 336.970320 1137.962206 5976.066582 114785.373869
2026-04-19 30.694384 60.036955 128.626796 336.857090 1176.808183 6601.854850 156987.591886